000 AXNT20 KNHC 112353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAULA. AS OF 12/0000 UTC...PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 84.3W OR ABOUT 90 NM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING NNW. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NE NICARAGUA...E HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 14N-17N BETWEEN 84W-86W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 83W-87W...AND FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W IMPACTING MUCH OF CUBA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N76W TO 8N75W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE SPLIT OFF AND BECAME EMBEDDED IN SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SRN PORTION CONTINUES TO TRACK W COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE WAVE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ...ITCZ... A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 16W FROM 5N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-34W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 27N88W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM T.S. PAULA IS BEGINNING TO REACH OVER THE SE GULF. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE GULF UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. PAULA IS PRODUCING DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE SE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT EVIDENT IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF HAITI IS HELPING SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH PAULA...WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 30N72W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 65W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 27N54W 23N63W 23N67W TO N OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 50W-63W...AND FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 63W-68W. FARTHER E...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N30W TO 29N40W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 24N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 12N49W SUPPORTING A FEW SWIRLING AREAS OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 45W-53W. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ . THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS COVERED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF 1020 MB HIGHS NEAR 25N37W AND 35N37W LOCATED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 12N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON