000 AXNT20 KNHC 101750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR 37.3N 41.1W...OR ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES. OTTO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 37 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 38N-41N BETWEEN 37W-41W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N81W DRIFTING NW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N78W TO TO THE LOW CENTER TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 18N64W TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AT 10N68W MOVING W AT 15KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 8N35W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W... AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 45W048W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND DRIFTING SE. WEAK 5-10 KNOT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 72W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W FASTER THAN THE SPECIAL FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE RAIN PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W TO 24N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N58W TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 59W-65W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLANTIC NEAR 28N29W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA