000 AXNT20 KNHC 101130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO AT 10/0900 UTC IS NEAR 35.3N 45.0W...OR ABOUT 1005 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. OTTO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 34 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 36N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. OTTO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL...AND ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DETERIORATING. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 30N47W TO 27N50W TO 24N60W INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N42W 26N48W 23N56W...AND FROM NORTHEASTERN COASTAL HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS OFF JAMAICA...TO 17N80W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N81W...TO 10N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 21N NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND GREAT INAGUA BETWEEN 72W AND 83W NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND OF COLOMBIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W...ON TOP OF SAINT KITTS...TO 15N64W INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W... AND FROM VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N22W...7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA...ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME...INTO NORTH CENTRAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 8W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N TO 30N ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AS IT CROSSES 90W AND ENTERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE MAIN FEATURES ARE PRESENT. ONE IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE TROUGH THAT GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE SECOND ONE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSES ON TOP OF SAINT KITTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE THIRD FEATURE IS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 13N BETWEEN LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA AND 75W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N35W 20N41W TO 13N48W 9N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W... AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT