000 AXNT20 KNHC 100532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO AT 10/0300 UTC IS NEAR 33.9N 48.7W...OR ABOUT 815 NM TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. OTTO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 33 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 51W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. OTTO IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A SURFACE CURVES FROM 30N50W TO 24N60W INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N49W 25N53W...AND FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS OFF JAMAICA...TO 17N80W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N81W...TO 11N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA NEAR THE CAICOS PASSAGE AND SAN ANDRES ISLAND OF COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W...THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE TO 14N63W AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W... AND FROM 9N IN VENEZUELA TO THE COAST NEAR 11N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N22W...7N33W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA...ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME...INTO NORTH CENTRAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 8W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N TO 30N ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AS IT CROSSES 90W AND ENTERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE MAIN FEATURES ARE PRESENT. ONE IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE TROUGH THAT GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE SECOND ONE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE CHANNEL INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE THIRD FEATURE IS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W... COVERING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE NORTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA AND COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N31W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N37W 20N41W TO 10N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT