000 AXNT20 KNHC 091755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 30.7N 55.7W AT 09/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 545 MI E OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY FOCUSED NE OF THE CENTER FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 29N-37N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS FROM 18N59W TO 10N63W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SFC OBSERVATION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW WEAK-MODERATE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER... THERE IS SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED BELOW IN THE ATLANTIC SECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 10N30W 7N40W 8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW BASIN AND A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH AROUND 27N92W. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA... TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PART OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. WITHIN THIS REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW OF 15-25 KT ROTATES AROUND A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE LOW CENTER ALONG 20N76W 16N78W 13N80W 10N81W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JETSTREAK WITH AXIS FROM 20N87W TO 26N77W FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO IT. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SSW OF HURCN OTTO REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 68W N OF 17N GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVES IS MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 63E. OTHER THAN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TO MARINERS AND AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON IS HURRICANE OTTO IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW OF OTTO TO THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 27N57W 22N62W 17N68W. THIS TROUGH IS WELL DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 55 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 25N62W OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N E OF 50W... ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA