000 AXNT20 KNHC 090531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 27.8N 60.8W AT 09/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 340 NM SE OF BERMUDA MOVING ENE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS 90 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 59W-61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 56W-58W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO 7N59W MOVING NW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE ARE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N22W 3N34W 4N43W 7N47W. ITCZ REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS RELAXED ACROSS THE GULF WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF MAINTAINING THE CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECT SURFACE REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 17N76W THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 13N78W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 77W-83W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER PUERTO RICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-75W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE OTTO IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND ANCHORED OVER PUERTO RICO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN 42W-80W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM S OF HURRICANE OTTO NEAR 25N58W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N13W THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N22W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 24N33W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW