000 AXNT20 KNHC 081710 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 25.9N 64.0W AT 08/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA MOVING ENE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 61W-66W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N51W TO 10N55W 5N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 49W-56W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 5N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 14W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N95W PRODUCING NE TO E SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF TAMPICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 96W-98W. 5-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 13N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 18N75W TO THE LOW CENTER TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 76W-80W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 65W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 70W-76W. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE OTTO IS NOW ON A NE TRACK THREATENING CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHIPPING. SEE ABOVE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N43W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N15W 27N24W 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N-16N E OF 55W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 8N45W...AND AT 15N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE CANARY ISLANDS...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND HURRICANE OTTO TO MOVE NE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA