000 AXNT20 KNHC 080552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.1N 66.6W OR ABOUT 500 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING ENE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 65W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 64W-68W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE TO THE S OF THE CENTER FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 64W-69W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N47W TO 6N51W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 43W-51W AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N 12WE 7N19W 4N27W 8N44W. ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY INACTIVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29N-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NE MISSOURI AND A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH OVER SE TEXAS. THIS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF 20N. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECT SURFACE REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W SE TO 13N77W. THERE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT COVERS THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 63W-74W. AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND IS CONTINUING COMPLIMENTS OF T.S. OTTO. FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN MAJOR RIVERS IN PUERTO RICO. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS T.S. OTTO IN THE W ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FAR W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS INTO THE REGION JUST W OF BERMUDA TO 27N71W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT COVERS THE E U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 68W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 45W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 48W-61W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC MAINLY N OF 15N E OF 30W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DIPS S JUST INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N22W ALONG 30N32W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N40W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW