000 AXNT20 KNHC 071743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 68.0W OR ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 1500 UTC OTTO MADE THE TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL WHEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AT THE CENTER. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 66W-69W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 12N43W TO 9N47W 4N50W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOWS A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N17W 6N30W 10N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N99W PRODUCING NE TO E SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF TAMPICO FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 95W-99W. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASED WIND SPEEDS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF JAMAICA TO PANAMA ALONG 17N78W 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. 20-25 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 66W-76W. 15-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N68W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W. EXPECT...A 1007 MB LOW TO FORM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONTINUED CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS AT 26N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 60W-62W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N43W. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N-20N E OF 52W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 23N68W... 26N52W...AND 4N54W. EACH SYSTEM HAS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. EXPECT... GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF T.S. OTTO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA