000 AXNT20 KNHC 070601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 0300 UTC...SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 68.2W OR ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS 65 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 65W-70W. CONTINUES TO DRAG DEEP LAYER MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. HENCE...MULTIPLE ACTIVE BANDS SSE OF THE CENTER EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO... THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF SAINT LUCIA. WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE NOTED FORM THE SSW AT 20-25 KT. FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED TERRAIN FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALLS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 11N41W TO 2N45W MOVING W AT 8 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOWS A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY IN THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 38W-50W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W WESTWARD ALONG 6N26W 7N34W...RESUMING NEAR 7N45W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W AND 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N98W PRODUCING NE SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA SOUTH OF 27N. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS E OF 85W AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SOME WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO CONTINUES TO DRAG DEEP LAYER MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BANDS OF CONVECTION COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF SAINT LUCIA. WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE NOTED FORM THE SSW AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLANTIC REACHES ACROSS CUBA AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N79W 16N80W 10N81W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL STORM...IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N68W AND IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS. SURFACE WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT ARE 15-20 KT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SUB-TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ENHANCING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SW ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE E OF 50W N OF 12N...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N48W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 22N68W AND 23N52W. THE FORMER LOW IS ENTWINED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STORM. EACH UPPER CYCLONE IS CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC E OF 45W FROM 10N-25N. IN THE NEXT DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD FADE WHILE THE AREA OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STORM SHOULD GROW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA