000 AXNT20 KNHC 062350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 2100 UTC...SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 68.3W OR ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 68W-72W. AN ACTIVE BAND E OF THE CENTER EXTENDS S THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM FROM A LINE BETWEEN 13N68W TO 23N62W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 41W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 8 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK LOW OF 1010 MB IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 5N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N24W 6N34W WITH A BREAK UNTIL 6N46W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N96W PRODUCING NE SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA SOUTH OF 27N. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF 85W AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SOME WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLANTIC REACHES ACROSS CUBA AND EXTENDS TO JUST W OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF E CUBA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 77W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL STORM SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...OVER JAMAICA...TO 16N81W. WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS A E OF THE FRONT ARE WEAK AND VARIABLE. WINDS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE WESTERLY AND WEAK IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. W OF THE FRONT WINDS ABOUT 20 KT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL STORM..IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N68W AND IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 84W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO THE BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS W OF THE FRONT ARE 20-25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 23N68W AND 24N56W. THE FORMER LOW IS ENTWINED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STORM. EACH UPPER CYCLONE IS CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE N OF THE CENTER ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC IN THE VISIBLE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 45W FROM 10N-22N. IN THE NEXT DAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD FADE WHILE THE AREA OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STORM SHOULD GROW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA