000 AXNT20 KNHC 061747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 68.0W OR ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER IS GETTING CLOSER THE THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 69W-71W. AN ACTIVE BAND E OF THE CENTER EXTENDS S TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 61W-65W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 342W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 8 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 40W-44W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N23W 8N42W 5N50W 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 15W-19W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 21W-25W. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 7N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N94W PRODUCING NE SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 95W-100W. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND S GUATEMALA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 83W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N68W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO THE BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 22N68W...23N56W...AND 4N36W. EACH SYSTEM HAS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 45W FROM 10N-23N. EXPECT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WITH SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA