000 AXNT20 KNHC 052356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1004 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO AT 21N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E AND S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 60W-65W AND FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 65W-72W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW HAS A DISTINCT DRY SLOT W OF THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS AS SEEN IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE GEOSTATIONARY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NW OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS BOTH ENTANGLED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND IS ENHANCING SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP SOME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 41W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-11N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 07N31W 08N39W 05N53W. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N E OF 20W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 33W FROM 3N-11N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-20 KT NE SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA BETWEEN 22N AND 27N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN FROM NE TO SW. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORTHERLY AND LESS THAN 20 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS THE WINDS ARE SW UP TO 20 KT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 84W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N68W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO 22N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS...CUBA..AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N48W. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N53W. JUST EAST OF THE LOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N51W TO 14N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 23N68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N51W. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SE OF THE CENTER ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N31W WITH FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED IN BOTH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 35W FROM 10N-23N. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES IN THE TROPICS TO MOVE W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA