000 AXNT20 KNHC 051743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 1500 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR BUOY 41043 AT 21N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 62W-65W TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-41W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N21W 6N31W 7N39W 5N50W 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 15W-20W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 30W/31W FROM 3N-10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM ALONG 49W FROM 12N-20N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 17N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 43W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GULF PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE... OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO AT 18N67W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 68W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 86W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N68W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W...AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO 25N77W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 23N68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W WITH FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 30W FROM 10N-23N. EXPECT ...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES IN THE TROPICS TO MOVE W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA