000 AXNT20 KNHC 051122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWWW UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N63W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED JUST S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 15N72W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-72W AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH TO THE LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR WED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 38W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N17W 8N25W THEN RESUMES NEAR 5N42W 6N50W 7N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 26W FROM 4N-10N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM ALONG 47W FROM 11N-18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 14N GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 45W-48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 43W-48W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-16W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-20W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 22W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. COVERS THE N GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS SW UPPER FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W O INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MOSTLY DRIER AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC TO 75W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W S ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 23N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N76W SE TO OVER N HAITI NEAR 19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM E AND 75 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM HAITI ALONG 26N74W TO 32N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH TO THE W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N67W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE E END OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SECOND LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N51W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW