000 AXNT20 KNHC 050557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING NE CARIBBEAN WITH A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 12N67W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 58W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 74W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR WED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 38W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N17W 8N36W 9N47W 7N55W 11N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 24W FROM 3N-10N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 6N21W 8N25W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM ALONG 47W FROM 5N-16N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 12N GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 43W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 8W-20W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 25W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 22W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. COVERS THE N GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS SW UPPER FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N29W TO 20N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW AND E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOSTLY DRIER AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC TO 75W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W S ALONG 27N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 23N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N76W SE TO OVER N HAITI NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 90/120 NM NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N72W TO 32N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH TO THE W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SECOND LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N49W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW