000 AXNT20 KNHC 050004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 20N64W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N66W...JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W AND 12N68W. A TROUGH THAT IS MOSTLY AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... BUT SLIGHTLY IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS ALSO...EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N65W TO 20N64W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N66W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRONG IN SOME CLUSTERS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W...AND ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME COMPARATIVELY WEAKER WITH TIME...AND SHEAR WILL BE LESS OVER THE SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA...REGARDLESS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N34W 9N37W 3N37W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N21W 7N28W 9N34W 8N40W 10N46W 7N55W 10N61W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...AND IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 2N TO 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 100W. PART OF THAT CYCLONIC FLOW REACHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N/27N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL BIT OF MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...INCLUDING JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED IN JAMAICA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N74W 10N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 74W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N44W 21N48W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N48W...TO 12N50W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 7N TO 14N. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N49W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 39W AND 53W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THIS AREA AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 5 TO 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT