000
AXNT20 KNHC 041736
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 16N33W 
TO 4N35W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF 
MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 
31W-36W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 20N61W TO A 
1008 MB LOW NEAR 17N66W TO 14N69W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE 
E CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 58W-71W. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N26W 11N35W 8N40W 11N48W 
7N54W 10N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ITCZ ALONG 22W/23W 
FROM 2N-9N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 
20W-25W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
FROM 14N46W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N48W TO 7N49W WITH 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 41W-46W. CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 
10W-12W...FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 25W-30W... AND FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 
41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS 
DOT THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...S 
MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT... CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE...OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING 
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION E OF 71W. SEE ABOVE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N74W TO 10N81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 76W-83W. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 82W-88W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 21N64W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W 
TO 27N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 74W-76W...AND FROM 
24N-28N BETWEEN 72W-73W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N47W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS E OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N22W. EXPECT 
...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE 
FEATURES IN THE TROPICS TO MOVE W.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA