000 AXNT20 KNHC 041033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N31W TO 7N34W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N60W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 17N65W TO 13N69W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 62W FROM 13N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 11N-19N BETWEEN 58W-65W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS W OF 64W. ACTIVITY NW OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N12W 8N26W 8N40W 10N47W 8N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ITCZ ALONG 21W/22W FROM 3N-8N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 13N44W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 9N46W TO 6N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 42W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 14W-18W...FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 23W-29W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 39W-41W...AND FROM 3N TO THE S COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-11W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE GULF MOSTLY S OF 24W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND GIVING THE FLORIDA STRAITS ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 82W. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA THEN JUST E JAMAICA ALONG 14N76W TO 10N78W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. SEE TROPICAL SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 79W TO HONDURAS NEAR 84W WHERE DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC TO 75W SUPPORTING A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 29N76W ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS GIVING THE FLORIDA STRAITS ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N73W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N76W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 22N-27N. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N70W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N67W AND S ACROSS HAITI PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 72W FROM 22N-29N. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 20N62W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A SECOND LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW