000 AXNT20 KNHC 040532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N31W TO 6N33W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 21N61W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 17N65W TO 11N67W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N57W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N66W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY NW OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N16W 8N33W 7N39W 9N47W 8N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 9N21W TO 3N23W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 13N44W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N46W TO 7N47W WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N43W TO 11N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-29W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE GULF S OF 28W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR GUANTANAMO THEN JUST E JAMAICA ALONG 15N76W TO 10N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-82W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW...SEE ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N68W TO 14N78W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 61W-63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD BUT NOT TOBAGO. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 80W TO HONDURAS NEAR 87W WHERE DRIER AIR PREVAILS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC TO 76W SUPPORTING A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 30N76W AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N75W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR GUANTANAMO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N TO 30N74W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N69W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N66W AND S ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N69W TO 26N71W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 21N61W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N38W BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E ATLC THAT IS MOVING TO OVER SPAIN TO NW AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH HALF WAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW