000 AXNT20 KNHC 032351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N35W TO 14N32W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED SINCE EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST AND REMAINS A RELATIVELY WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE AXIS IS COLLOCATED WITH AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING ALONG 21N61W 15N64W TO 11N66W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTER IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N63W. WHILE A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXISTS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOCALLY FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES DUE SATURATED TERRAIN OVER THESE AREAS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 7N30W 9N40W 8N50W 10N60W. ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC MENTIONED ABOVE...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 9N20W TO 3N22W AND EXHIBITS A LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC PERTURBATION TO THE MEAN EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-26W. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N42W TO 6N45W WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE REGION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ROAM THE PREMISES. MARINE OBS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE LOW LEVEL DERIVED WINDS SHOW SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT CONVERGING OVER THE FAR SW BASIN AND INTO THE CHIVELA PASS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 9N81W. A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN IT IS TRACKING WESTWARD BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W. MORE DETAILS ARE LOCATED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N75W 24N76W 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE NEAR NW OF THIS FEATURE...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N77W WITH A WAKING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AT THE MOMENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS IMPACTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N46W. SSE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FAR SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH. THIS FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 21N E OF 66W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE 1026 MB HIGH MENTIONED EARLIER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA