000 AXNT20 KNHC 031145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N23W TO 7N25W MOVING W 5-10 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N59W THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS AND A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 17N64W TO 13N66W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM W OF THE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN 15N-18N AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 57W-59W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 55W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 7N18W 10N27W 8N35W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 32W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS AGAIN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF SE OF LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO LEAVING THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTAL WATERS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS WITH A COLD FRONT DIPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES FROM N GEORGIA TO SE TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TO ENTER THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND OVER THE W GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR PALMA SORIANO ACROSS CENTRAL JAMAICA THEN ALONG 14N79W TO 10N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 15N AND WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF 15N TO ACROSS CUBA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW...SEE ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 80W TO HONDURAS NEAR 85W WHERE DRIER AIR PREVAILS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC TO 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N79W SW TO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N75W S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR PUERTO PADRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 75W-78W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N68W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N64W AND S ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N64W TO 22N68W AND FROM 25N69W TO BEYOND 32N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N18W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N36W TO 19N44W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 62W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH 900 NM ENE OF BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW