000 AXNT20 KNHC 030558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N22W TO 7N25W MOVING W 5-10 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N55W THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO 13N65W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 56W-58W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM 15N53W TO 19N57W AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 59W-63W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 9N23W 8N32W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-20W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-18W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS AGAIN TONIGHT. SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF. A SECONDARY PUSH IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE W GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA THEN OVER THE E TIP OF JAMAICA ALONG 14N78W TO 11N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 85W WHERE DRIER AIR PREVAILS AND CLEAR SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 73W AND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 66W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC TO 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N76W SW TO 29N79W THEN S ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TO 26N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W SW ALONG 28N74W THEN S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR BANES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 76W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N67W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N64W AND S ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N60W 23N68W 29N70W TO BEYOND 32N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N18W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N34W TO 19N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH 800 NM ENE OF BERMUDA AND A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH JUST E OF MADEIRA ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW