000
AXNT20 KNHC 022356
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS E,BEDDED IN THE ITCZ S OF THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS ALONG 24W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE MAY DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N54W TO 
15N59W. AN WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
18N57W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW AT 15 KT AND IS WELL DEPICTED 
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 9N22W 8N29W 8N37W. 
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WESTERN END 
OF THE ITCZ NEAR 9N41W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE 
REGION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A 
FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ROAM THE PREMISES. 
MARINE OBS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE LOW LEVEL DERIVED WINDS SHOW 
NORTHERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
WESTERN ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM SANTIAGO DE CUBA NEAR 
20N76W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 
80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS W OF 80W S OF 14N. THIS FEATURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W AND 68W BOTH S OF 18N. THESE TWO 
SYSTEMS ARE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO 
THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION 
FALLING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN 
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS 
NOTED IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
LOCALLY FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO 
OVER THESE REGIONS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF 
THE WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE 
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN 
US SEABOARD SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
ENTERS THE WESTERN REGION NEAR 32N72W AND CONTINUES S ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS ALONG 27N75W TO 21N76W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS SYSTEM COVERS A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE 
FEATURE N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS 
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE SOUTHERN 
EXTENT OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION S OF 23N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W. 
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 22N E OF 63W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N48W. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA