000 AXNT20 KNHC 021717 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 24W-26W. THIS WAVE MAY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N52W TO 14N58W. AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N55W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 15 KT AND IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 11N23W 10N30W 10N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 10N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 40W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT... CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 22N77W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 13N80W DRIFTING E. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF 18N MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W S OF 16N MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 76W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA AT 19N78W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO E CUBA AT 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W. ANOTHER 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N16W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 23N68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N28W. EXPECT ...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE LOWS TO MOVE W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MRF/SMM