000 AXNT20 KNHC 021107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W/20W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DRAWING THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY N AWAY FROM THE WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 21N52W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 17N54W TO 13N55W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE S OF THE LOW CENTER WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE N GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 19N51W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 7N19W THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N22W TO 10N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-14N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF. SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E U.S. INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THEN NARROWS ACROSS MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE W GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE LEVEL WILL STAY LOW GIVING THE GULF WATERS FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR W OF JAMAICA TO 10N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 81W AND 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 14N TO OVER CUBA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-69W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 80W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W WHERE DRIER AIR DOMINATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SKIRTING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W S TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 75W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 22N73W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 59W-71W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N29W THEN S 17N32W AND IS DRAWING THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NORTHWARD. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 9N40W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W/60W BETWEEN 10N-17N GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 19N BETWEEN 56W-64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW