000 AXNT20 KNHC 020539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 18W/19W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAWING THE ENERGY NORTHWARD. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N51W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N52W TO 13N53W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE N OF THE LOW CENTER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 16N49W TO 18N53W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N21W 10N30W 6N42W 5N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 21W-26W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 26W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT. SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E U.S. INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THEN NARROWS ACROSS MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE W GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE LEVEL WILL STAY LOW GIVING THE GULF WATERS FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR W OF JAMAICA TO 12N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 76W-82W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ALONG 15N66W TO THE JUST INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 63W-68W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 80W TO CENTRAL BELIZE WHERE DRIER AIR DOMINATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W CONTINUING ALONG 29N75W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 22N75W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 60W-72W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W TO 20N36W AND IS DRAWING THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NORTHWARD. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 9N39W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W/58W BETWEEN 10N-17N GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 18N59W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 56W-61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW