000
AXNT20 KNHC 011719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 21N MOVING 
W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 
46W-49W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 55W-58W. A WEAK LOW MAY BE 
FORMING ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N51W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS 
FEATURE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 16W/17W S 
OF 21N FROM SW MAURITANIA...TO SENEGAL...TO S OF WESTERN GUINEA 
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS 
NEAR 18N17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N19W 8N30W 6N40W. BESIDES THE 
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTIONS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 12W-14W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 41W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED E TO THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS 
THE SOUTHERN GULF DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N77W TO E 
HONDURAS AT 15N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S 
OF CUBA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 74W-84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 62W-67W.  
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W... AND INLAND OVER NICARAGUA 
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 18N83W. 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME 
NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL 
CUBA AT 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE 
FRONT...AND 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N48W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N64W. A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N39W. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N24W.   
EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE 
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA