000 AXNT20 KNHC 011157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 13N TO 20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE FORMING NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N16W 10N18W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED OFFSHORE JUST TO THE WEST OF GAMBIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL. ...THE ITCZ... 10N20W 9N32W 12N43W...13N49W 13N58W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7.5N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 28N74W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM HAITI TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOWARD THE EARTH'S SURFACE SHIFTS MORE EASTWARD...ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE TROUGH ENDS UP MORE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND ENDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W... AND ALONG THE COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA ALONG 75W...IN DIFFLUENT FLOW AT VARYING LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...WITH A 62W/63W SURFACE TROUGH...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE 62W/63W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOES FROM 16N TO 32N. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N26W 23N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W...AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 36N/37N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT