000 AXNT20 KNHC 010613 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA INTO WESTERN SENEGAL...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 10N17W. STRONG RAIN- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SENEGAL JUST TO THE NORTH OF GAMBIA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N TO 20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ... 12N20W 8N36W 13N44W...12N48W 11N55W 12N61W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...TO COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N ALONG 85W/86W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOWARD THE EARTH'S SURFACE SHIFTS MORE EASTWARD...ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE TROUGH ENDS UP MORE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND ENDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE TOWARD THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA ALONG 75W... IN DIFFLUENT FLOW AT VARYING LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N63W 17N63W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N26W 26N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W...AROUND A 36N RIDGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT