000 AXNT20 KNHC 301728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 15W FROM SW MAURITANIA...TO CENTRAL SENEGAL...TO WESTERN GUINEA MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 41W-48W...AND FURTHER E FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N16W 7N30W 11N45W 9N55W 11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED E OF FLORIDA TO THE W ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 33N85W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N78W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 73W-86W. IN ADDITION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 65W-73W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-63W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 56W FROM 13N-20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA AT 18N77W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WHERE FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 996 GALE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE...IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N FORM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MOSTLY E OF THE SYSTEM N OF 22N BETWEEN 74W-78W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N46W. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N58W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA