000
AXNT20 KNHC 301128
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM SOUTHERN MAURITANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN 
SENEGAL...WESTERN GUINEA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 6N15W.
THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF SENEGAL.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N43W 12N44W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND 46W.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS 
RELATED TO THE WIND SURGE THAT IS MOVING TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

6N18W 6N34W 10N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 33W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 54W FROM 12N TO 18N. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N80W TO A 995 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 26N80W...AND CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF CUBA ALONG
79W...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. 
SEA HEIGHTS ARE RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 15 FEET. STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N IN CUBA
BETWEEN WESTERN HAITI AND 81W...INCLUDING DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
JAMAICA. MORE STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS 
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLEAR SKIES ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE U.S.A. 
GULF COAST STATES TO THE EAST OF 93W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF 28N93W 25N96W 20N95W. LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REST
OF THE AREA. 

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OF 20N70W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THEN CURVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE AREA OF 15N/16N
ALONG 60W...BEFORE CURVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 
59W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF
70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 25N58W TO 17N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 64W...AND FROM 18N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N26W 
22N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N 
BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W...
AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT