000 AXNT20 KNHC 300540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM SOUTHWESTERN MALI...ACROSS GUINEA... INTO SIERRA LEONE. REMNANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN SENEGAL AND NORTHWESTERN GUINEA...AND COASTAL GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N40W 12N36W 6N34W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. ...THE ITCZ... 7N14W 5N25W 9N33W...7N36W 10N47W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N17W 5N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N25W 6N31W 8N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 15N51W 19N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N54W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N80W TO A 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W...TO A 995 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N80W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...TO CUBA ALONG 80W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W...TO THE HONDURAS COAST ALONG 86W/87W...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH GUATEMALA...AND FINALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N92W ALONG THE GUATEMALA COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT HUGS THE GEORGIA COAST INTO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TOWARD TAMPA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 14 FEET IN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI AND 81W...INCLUDING DIRECTLY ON TOP OF JAMAICA. MORE STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM COASTAL CUBA TO 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT HUGS THE GEORGIA COAST INTO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TOWARD TAMPA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LOW CLOUDS WERE IN THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 97W AS SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES AS LATE AS 29/2100 UTC. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OF 20N70W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THEN CURVING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE AREA OF 15N/16N ALONG 60W...BEFORE CURVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N58W TO 17N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 70W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N26W 22N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W... AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT