000 AXNT20 KNHC 291153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 29/1200 UTC IS NEAR 22.6N 81.4W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF JAMAICA RIGHT NOW...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INCLUDING ON TOP OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND EVEN SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE WATERS AND OVER LAND AREAS...TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER THREATS ARE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N33W 14N32W 10N31W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 9N20W 11N27W...7N34W 8N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N TO 17N. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND REMAINING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 16N51W 9N55W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLD FRONT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME STATIONARY AND MUCH OF IT HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 30N84W 25N86W 21N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS RELATED TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES FROM EASTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ALONG THE COASTS OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUDS... LOW PRESSURE...AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 70W...THE AREA OF INTEREST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN. RAINSHOWERS WERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W... IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N47W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N62W. ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM 33N49W TO 28N56W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N25W TO 19N33W. THE 1018 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LISA THAT IS NEAR 30N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT