000 AXNT20 KNHC 281750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 82.5W AT 28/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 140 NM S OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 320 NM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MOVING NNE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND SE FLORIDA. THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE SYSTEM FOR THREAT OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. CURRENTLY MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS E AND SE OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 76W-84W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 75W-88W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 16N24W TO 4N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 8N24W 4N36W 8N47W 10N52W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 38W-45W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 41W FROM 10N-15N. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N47W 8N48W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W ALONG 24N88W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY...ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 88W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS T.D. SIXTEEN MOVES NWD ACROSS CUBA BRINGING RAIN AND WIND TO MUCH OF S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.D. SIXTEEN IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN BRINGING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF OF THE AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. SIXTEEN...SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 63W-73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING...FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS E OF THE FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA. SEVERAL SMALL SURFACE LOW CIRCULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N64W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A SECOND 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N54W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SEE ITCZ SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE N...ANOTHER 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N32W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG 27N33W TO 25N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 28W-34W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 15N39W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS EXTENDING TO NEAR 23N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON