000 AXNT20 KNHC 281158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS TO THE COASTAL YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISTHMUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. A WIND SURGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 12N17W 8N30W 7N40W 7N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N37W 9N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... TO THAT PART OF THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND THE AREAS THAT ALREADY ARE AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA OF INTEREST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUDS... LOW PRESSURE...AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 77W...THE AREA OF INTEREST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 64W AND FLORIDA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINING WATERS BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 64W AND FLORIDA. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANT OF JULIA IS A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N38W 26N47W 27N52W TO 14N61W NEAR SAINT LUCIA. THE REMNANT OF LISA IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31W/32W...WITH A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 29N. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT