000 AXNT20 KNHC 280538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W... FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FROM THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISTHMUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N87W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD. RESIDENTS IN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...THE ITCZ... 13N17W 7N30W 7N36W 10N44W 11N50W 9N58W 10N63W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N37W 9N38W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N42W 11N47W 8N50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM NORTH FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THAT PART OF THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND THE AREAS THAT ALREADY ARE AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA OF INTEREST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUDS... LOW PRESSURE...AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W...THE AREA OF INTEREST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND FLORIDA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINING WATERS BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 65W AND FLORIDA. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANT OF JULIA IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N60W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N61W TO 28N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N38W 26N47W 27N52W TO 14N61W NEAR SAINT LUCIA. THE REMNANT OF LISA IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N30W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N32W... TO 23N33W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT