000 AXNT20 KNHC 271148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 11N33W 10N50W 11N60W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N35W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN BELIZE...AND THEY COVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS CLEARED LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 100W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND MEXICO WITH TIME. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N97W 24N90W 28N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...AND FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THAT PART OF SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 71W FROM 32N TO 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 67W. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N62W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 71W FROM 18N TO 32N. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. THE 1012 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JULIA IS NEAR 28N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. THE 1012 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LISA IS NEAR 26N31W. LOW CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO A 28N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N44W TO 18N54W TO 14N56W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS TROUGH IS ABOUT 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT