000 AXNT20 KNHC 270513 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 10N17W 7N22W 9N29W...AND FROM 10N36W TO 7N42W AND 7N49W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N35W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS CLEARED LOUISIANA... EAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB FLORIDA PANHANDLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO EAST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 28N...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 28N109W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N104W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W AND 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N...AND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THAT PART OF SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 25N71W TO 18N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 67W. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N63W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 25N71W TO 18N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. THE 1014 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JULIA IS NEAR 29N55W. MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LISA IS NEAR 26N29W. LOW CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO A 28N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N46W TO 20N53W TO 14N56W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT