000 AXNT20 KNHC 261748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 29.1W AT 26/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 645 NM NNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 750 NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LISA IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND COMPLETELY DEVOID ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17.4N 92.9W AT 26/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM S OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH MATTHEW IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL SYSTEM IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N14W 9N28W 8N43W 7N60W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 12N34W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 33W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 18W-30W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 32W-43W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MATTHEW REMAINS OVER S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST W OF MATTHEW NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ENE TO 22N93W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE E GULF SE OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO NEAR MERIDA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. AND EXTENDS S TO OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N89W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED AT 1500 UTC ALONG 28N88W TO 24N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR CHETUMAL MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E TO 16N73W AND N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING TOWARD THE ISLANDS BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA TO BARBUDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH 300 NM ENE OF BERMUDA SW TO 27N72W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 27N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A 1014 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N53W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 52W-55W. OTHERWISE THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH DRY STABLE AIR FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 30W-65W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC MOSTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THERE IS A 1012 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...SEE ITCZ ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-18N W OF 57W TO THE ISLANDS BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA TO BARBUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE