000 AXNT20 KNHC 261029 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17.3N 91.8W AT 26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT TO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF S MEXICO LIKELY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 90W-98W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 29.0W AT 26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 613 NM NNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LISA REMAINS SMALL WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 26W-28W. LISA IS EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL WLY SHEAR THAT WILL WEAKEN THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N25W 7N35W 5N45W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-28W...AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MATTHEW IS OVER S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW LINGERS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT SURFACE E FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FLORIDA ...AND THE E GULF E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N99W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO MATTHEW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 75W-89W. ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HAITI NEAR 21N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. EXPECT...CONTINUE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N59W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW. T.D.LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N35W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER LISA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA