000 AXNT20 KNHC 260558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17.0N 91.0W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF TIKAL GUATEMALA MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT TO CENTRAL AMERICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 90W-96W. TROPICAL STORM LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 29.0W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 574 NM NNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LISA REMAINS SMALL WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 26W-29W. LISA IS EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL WLY SHEAR THAT WILL WEAKEN THE STORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N25W 7N35W 5N40W 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 13W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 31W-35W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MATTHEW IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW LINGERS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT E FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N99W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF DUE TO MATTHEW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.D. MATTHEW IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO PRODUCING ABUNDANT CONVECTION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS ...AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 77W-88W. ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 69W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HAITI NEAR 21N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. EXPECT...CONTINUE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N58W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW. HURRICANE LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N35W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER LISA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA