000 AXNT20 KNHC 251146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 87.3W AT 25/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 22 NM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS...74 NM ESE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MATTHEW IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND BELIZE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 86W-92W. MATTHEW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HURRICANE LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 28.1W AT 25/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 408 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA IS A SMALL STORM IN RELATION TO THE CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT MANAGED TO HAVE A SMALL EYE FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 27W-29W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SW OF HURRICANE LISA ALONG 11N30W 10N40W 13N50W 14N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 18W-23W... AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 23W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT E FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N95W 16N92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 95W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF DUE TO MATTHEW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN...SEE SURFACE FEATURES ABOVE. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N AND E OF MATTHEW WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND 16N94W 20N87W 9N77W. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 70W-74W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 63W-66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. EXPECT...MATTHEW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW. HURRICANE LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AT 32N72W AND 30N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA