000 AXNT20 KNHC 241804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA AT 24/1500 UTC IS NEAR 18.9N 27.8W...OR ABOUT 190 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. LISA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 06 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N22W 23N26W 20N28W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AT 24/1800 UTC IS NEAR 14.6N 83.0W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 45 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ALONG THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. MATTHEW IS MOVING WESTWARD 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE MAP AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ... 9N43W 10N54W 11N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N91W JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N91W TO 28N93W TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A REMNANT TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE 29N91W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N87W 24N90W... TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM WEST CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N95W. BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N86W 24N93W 19N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 19N72W CLOSE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS ABOUT 140 NM TO THE EAST OF BARBADOS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N34W...TO 22N39W. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JULIA IS A 1013 MB LOW THAT IS NEAR 31N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N40W AND 27N40W 21N43W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N45W...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N20W TO 25N24W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N21W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. IT IS MOVING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT