000 AXNT20 KNHC 241153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AT 24/1200 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 80.7W OR ABOUT 275 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ALONG THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...MOVING WEST 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MATTHEW HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND ACTIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS REACHED HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE BAND 17N82W 16N76W 13N74W 10N77W. TROPICAL STORM LISA AT 24/0900 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 27.7W OR ABOUT 256 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 27W-29W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SW OF T.S. LISA ALONG 11N30W 14N50W 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 26W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 15-20 KT SW FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 80W-98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HOWEVER ALONG 21N95W 17N91W MOVING W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN...SEE SURFACE FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW TO BE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN 18 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N69W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 28N41W 23N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. T.S. LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AT 31N34W AND 33N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA