000 AXNT20 KNHC 231818 TWDAT AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA AT 23/1500 UTC IS NEAR 17.5N 28.9W...OR ABOUT 210 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. LISA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 02 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 28W AND 29.5W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13.9N 76.2W AT 23/1800 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND ABOUT 420 NM TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT54/ WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE MAP AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA COAST ALONG 11W FROM 6N TO 7N...TO 6N22 TO 4N30W... AND FROM 12N36W TO 11N45W TO 11N52W TO 11N60W NEAR TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 22W...AND FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N89W IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 25N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W...AROUND A 20N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE PRECIPITATION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ARE ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...SOME REACHING NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND FROM 20N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...SOME REACHING NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND FROM 20N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JULIA IS A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N36W AND 26N41W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N26W TO 21N30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N26W 26N21W 30N18W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 45W. IT IS MOVING AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT