000 AXNT20 KNHC 201802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 37.1N 62.5W AT 20/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 304 NM NNE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. IGOR REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM AND BERMUDA IS STILL REPORTING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 36N BETWEEN 60W-67W. TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.7N 46.4W AT 20/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 956 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING E AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JULIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIND SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-36N BETWEEN 35W-42W. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N32W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED. CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER HAS INCREASED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 27W-33W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 19N15W TO 9N18W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ...ITCZ... A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 16N32W TO 11N40W 10N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 33W-43W. THE TRADITIONAL ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP NEAR 11N47W TO 11N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 47W-55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 13N58W TO 10N58W 7N59W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 55W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 94W-98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 96W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 84W. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 90W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 60W64W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-68W... AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. WEAK 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IGOR...T.S. JULIA...TOGETHER WITH A TROPICAL LOW ARE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE ATLANTIC. IGOR...A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...IS MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND IS STILL PRODUCING JUST UNDER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND. SEE ABOVE. JULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER OUTFLOW OF IGOR CONTINUES TO SHEAR JULIA. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DUST OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N E OF 60W TO W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MRF/SMM