000 AXNT20 KNHC 191220 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 29.6N 65.3W AT 19/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 190 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING NNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. IGOR REMAINS LARGE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT BERMUDA. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-36N BETWEEN 62W-69W. TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 33.8N 51.8W AT 19/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1235 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JULIA MOVES NWD AND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIND SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 50W-52W WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 30N-36N BETWEEN 46W-53W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N30W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 27W-33W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...ITCZ... A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 11N12W TO 14N24W RESUMING NEAR 14N31W TO 11N41W INDICATING AN AREA WHERE THE WINDS S OF THE AXIS ARE MAINLY SWLY AS OPPOSED TO TYPICAL ITCZ CONVERGENCE OF SE-NE WINDS. THE TRADITIONAL ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N43W TO 8N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 34W-40W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 55W-60W EMBEDDED IN MOISTURE LEFT IN IGORS WAKE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LIES ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF IN THE WAKE OF KARL WHICH DISSIPATED YESTERDAY. AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG 30N92W 29N96W 25N99W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N W OF 93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR WRN GULF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS E OF 92W DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR BEING DRAWN AROUND THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED SW OF NICARAGUA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-88W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OFF THE NRN COAST OF VENEZUELA S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-84W ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOONAL TROUGH ACROSS NICARAGUA TO N OF VENEZUELA. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW FROM THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IGOR IS INFLUENCING THE NE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW-W WINDS ACROSS THE NE ISLANDS. LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IGOR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 65W ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY IGOR. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD INCREASING THE CHANCES OF ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE FAR W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...HURRICANE IGOR IS MOVING TOWARDS BERMUDA WITH TROPICAL STORM JULIA TO THE NE OF IGOR. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NWD IN THE WAKE OF IGOR SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N-20N BETWEEN 55W-61W. E OF JULIA...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC N OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED NEAR JULIA CENTERED AT 29N49W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON