000 AXNT20 KNHC 190559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 65.1W AT 19/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 240 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. IGOR REMAINS LARGE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT BERMUDA. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 64W-65W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 62W-68W. TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 51.9W AT 19/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1265 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JULIA MOVES NWD AND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIND SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 49W-53W WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 48W-53W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N29W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 27W-34W...AND ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 23W-25W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...ITCZ... A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 9N12W TO 7N26W PICKING UP TO THE N ALONG 13N25W TO 11N40W INDICATING AN AREA WHERE THE WINDS S OF THE AXIS ARE MAINLY SWLY AS OPPOSED TO TYPICAL ITCZ CONVERGENCE OF SE-NE WINDS. THE TRADITIONAL ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 11N42W TO 10N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 44W-50W9N-18N BETWEEN 52W-61W EMBEDDED IN MOISTURE LEFT IN IGORS WAKE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LIES ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF IN THE WAKE OF KARL WHICH DISSIPATED YESTERDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE SRN TEXAS/ERN MEXICO COASTLINE ALONG 28N95W 23N96W 18N93W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N W OF 91W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N W OF 91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR WRN GULF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS E OF 91W DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR BEING DRAWN AROUND THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED SW OF NICARAGUA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 75W-84W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OFF THE NRN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 68W-74W MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO THE NRN TIP OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N73W. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW FROM THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IGOR IS INFLUENCING THE NE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW-W WINDS ACROSS THE NE ISLANDS. LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IGOR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 65W ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY IGOR. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD INCREASING THE CHANCES OF ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE FAR W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...HURRICANE IGOR IS MOVING TOWARDS BERMUDA WITH TROPICAL STORM JULIA TO THE NE OF IGOR. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NWD IN THE WAKE OF IGOR SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-20N BETWEEN 56W-65W. E OF JULIA...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC N OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED NEAR JULIA CENTERED NEAR 30N49W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON