000 AXNT20 KNHC 141153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 51.7W AT 14/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 650 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 47W-54W. TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 14/0900 UTC. HURRICANE JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 29.0W AT 14/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 290 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 26W-32W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N81W TO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO W-NW AT 9 TO 13 KT. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 16N ACROSS CUBA TO 23N BETWEEN 76W-85W. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THAT COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...ITCZ... THE MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N E OF 23W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 23W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE E GULF FROM 24N-29N E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 96W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SE TO OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N63W...AN UPPER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N82W TO 17N80W AND A SECOND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IGOR AND JULIA ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE TROPICAL ATLC THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 27N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 23N71W ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 71W-77W INCLUDING SOME OF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS...TURKS AND CAICOS. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 58W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 27N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W BECOMING STATIONARY TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. DRY AIR IS TRAILING THE FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALSO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N50W TO BEYOND 32N48W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA SURROUNDING HURRICANE IGOR AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N28W TO NEAR 22N38W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF AFRICA S OF 30N E TO 26W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 21N. 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